Pacquiao is on top of the world right now but look at his recent opponents and make up your own mind. He beat Juan Manuel Marquez in their second fight, which was very tough and close, but after that its been cake for Manny. He embarrassed David Diaz and exposed his lack of speed. Oscar De La Hoya tried to make weight and looked emaciated and was easily defeated. Ricky Hatton fought in his typical bully style and was disgraced in the ring. Manny Pacquiao's last good fight was March 15th, 2008, almost two years ago. He has yet to be really challenged and he might not be in this fight either.
Cotto was the toughest welterweight two years ago. Then he fought Antonio Margarito, who may have cheated, and got demolished. He took bombs from Margarito and finally took a knee in the 11th round. Before this however he was feared by all in the division. Many people, including myself, felt Floyd Mayweather passed up a good fight by retiring and not fighting Cotto. Two years later, Cotto beat a nobody and barely squeaked by against Joshua Clottey not looking as tough as he used to me. Many people attribute this to his feud with his trainer and uncle. His uncle smashed his car with a brick and Cotto broke his uncles jaw. None the less, Cotto looked shaky in his last fight. He was going backwards the whole fight and never got set. He can't do that if he wants to beat Pacquiao.
It may sound like a cop out but this fight will be decided in the first round. If Cotto comes out like he used to, tough and powerful, he will beat Pacquiao easily. If he backs up the whole fight, he will struggle. I don't believe that Pacquiao will knock out Cotto, he lacks the power. He may, however, dominate the fight with ease. The winner of this fight will be the one who establishes their style in the first round. It should be entertaining regardless.
The results of this fight does have many possibilities for the future of the division. Regardless of the result of the fight, Mayweather will probably fight Pacquiao. Andre Berto will fight, and lose to, Shane Mosely in January. Mosely lost in a close fight to Cotto in November, 2007. Timothy Bradley will fight Lamont Peterson in December and might jump up to welterweight. The future of this division should be interesting however it plays out and I am going to watch it.
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